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Commentary
The stock markets are simply exhausted from selling pressure. Nearly every market crash has its bear market rally and I think the time is very near for a substantial bear market rally in the US markets and markets around the world.
I'm looking more so at US markets.
To have said 2008 was going to be a challenging year for investors would have been a drastic understatement. 2008 started out where if you put your money in savings or CD, your returns would have been lower than the rate of inflation. At the same time, putting money elsewhere has proved to be horrendous for investors with massive volatility in nearly every asset class making an investment objective of “conservative” nearly nonexistent. From stocks, both domestic and international, to real estate and commodities, nearly all have suffered huge losses in 2008 with the exception of few.
Fear and uncertainty have brought plenty of crashes and rallies; some record breaking in percent terms this past year. It has been a game of constant decision making with thoughts and questions that included “to late to sell now” to “better sell now and cut losses” to “what are the opportunities now?” In the end, 2008 has proved to be just too unpredictable to have made more correct decisions than wrong and our investment returns have been subpar for 2008 regrettably so. More.. (will open in another browser)
Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.
I'm not a prophet and I don't have a crystal ball. Many topics I find myself to be more agnostic about than I may have been in prior years due to the recent wrath of unconventional interventions and policy’s that in my opinion distorted Mother Economic Nature.
Trust and confidence have been brought to record low levels many of us have ever seen in our lifetimes. It's quite discouraging the recent events of fraud in the financial markets and lack of transparency on our Governments end to dealing with the current financial crisis. More.. (will open in another browser)
Disclosure: This is not a means to solicit any of the securities mentioned nor does it recommend it for any person before they speak with a licensed professional investment advisor for their own suitability. Investing in Equities bears risk of capital loss. This is strictly the opinion of Jason Tillberg, President and founder of Tillberg Capital Management, Inc. and shall not be held responsible for investment loss from this writeup.
According to the suggestions of my research, 2010 could be the year of another depression, with real unemployment reaching 20% +, a slumping stock market, and numerous bankruptcies. If we are lucky not to face a depression, then we will be facing a very long and painful recession. More.. (will open in another browser)The second quarter of 2009 continues to be a challenging environment for investors. The economic data that I have been following has provided no signs of “green shoots.” This quarter’s update is chock full of graphs to help demonstrate where we are and where I think we are headed. More.. (will open in another browser) | ||||
Just like the cover of my book, "Put Your Money to Work," the picture depicts a reluctant "Bear" selling his undervalued shares to the savvy investor. In due time, the savvy investor sells his shares he bought from the "Bear" to the "Bull" after the share price has risen and become overvalued. The whole buy low sell high premise. More.. (will open in another browser)History may not repeat itself, but it does rhyme. I have been in the camp that this is a bear market rally. That is what I thought we would be getting in March. I'm also in the camp that because of the need to deleverage debt in most of the developed world, we will likely be heading into a global economic depression .. More (will open in another browser)Making short term market predictions is a fool's game, but I have some observations that I think give reason for concern. There is a chart that I started looking at recently. It's called the NYSE Bullish percentage index. It's the percentage of stocks giving buy signals on point and figure charts.. More (will open in another browser)